Valar Guild

July 6, 2008 Meeting

5pm EST (GMT - 5); (GMT = 22:00)
AIM: Valar Guild Meetingplace

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Transcript work by: 
Ar-Pharazon and Eonwe

Attending: (4)
    AriehnV, ArPharazonV, arwenv1, Eonwe Valar (presiding),

Meeting begins

You have just entered room "valarguildmeetingplace."
Eonwe Valar has entered the room.
arwenv1 has entered the room.
Eonwe Valar: heya
ArPharazonV: Aiya
ArPharazonV: just finished the 11th Guildwars mission, so I'm ready just in time :-)
Eonwe Valar: hehe
arwenv1: rawr! I'm conquering css :-)
Eonwe Valar: About a minute till the hour according to my watch, so we'll give it a couple more minutes before beginning.
Eonwe Valar: gogo Arwen :}
AriehnV has entered the room.
AriehnV: aiya there :-)
ArPharazonV: aiya
Eonwe Valar: Heya Arien
Eonwe Valar: Well, everyone I see on has a pending invitation. Let's go ahead and begin.

Eonwe Valar: Elen Sila Lumenn Omentielvo!
Eonwe Valar: Members:
Eonwe Valar: Varda can't make it today, because she and Sauron are picking Menelvagor up from the airport.
ArPharazonV: ah :-) is he enjoying himself in the States?
Eonwe Valar: As far as I can tell :}
Eonwe Valar: We crossed paths briefly on Lothar, letting me know he has the US version now.
ArPharazonV: great! ...but that means no more Menel on AD then
Eonwe Valar: You could always get a US version too, hehe.
Eonwe Valar: Anyway,.. :}
Eonwe Valar: Elwing's also over at Varda's to hang out with Eowyn and Menelvagor, so it's like a live meeting there, hehe.
ArPharazonV: ah, that sort of thing is always fun
Eonwe Valar: Menel ought to be through my area later this week.
Eonwe Valar: Any other member news?
ArPharazonV: well
ArPharazonV: college is finally over for the year
ArPharazonV: so now I'm free for the summer :-)
Eonwe Valar: Congrats :}
arwenv1: Yay :-)

Eonwe Valar: Web News:
Eonwe Valar: Just in case I haven't mentioned this before, since I'm no longer on a semester schedule, the GPMU is being moved back to September.
ArPharazonV: games page... mass... update?
Eonwe Valar: I think it's better, as everything is ready right before the Anniversary that way.
Eonwe Valar: Aye Phar :}
ArPharazonV: wooh, got it right at the first try
Eonwe Valar: That doesn't mean that people can't or shouldn't keep me apprised of their gaming info.
Eonwe Valar: And I hope people are putting the Games Page to use :}
AriehnV has left the room.
Eonwe Valar: As I have no info on any stories or such being put up this week, we can move on to Gaming.

Eonwe Valar: Gaming:
Eonwe Valar: WoW:
Eonwe Valar: Fire festival is over.
Eonwe Valar: Since this friday was July 4th, Independence Day in the US, I spent most of my time elsewhere besides WoW, except for that brief time Menel caught me on.
AriehnV has entered the room.
AriehnV: sorry for that but got dc .. we are back to disconnection blues
Eonwe Valar: Sorry to hear that Arien.
Eonwe Valar: LotRO:
Eonwe Valar: There was supposed to be a Goblin town run going on at 11am EST. I am much too low a level for that though, so I hope it went well for those involved :}
Eonwe Valar: The servers are expected to be down for maintainance tomorrow.
Eonwe Valar: Book 14 ought to be coming soon, as it's up on the test server right now.
Eonwe Valar: Pardon, a quick trip back to WoW news:
Eonwe Valar: Lots of info out there from the WWI on classes and other things coming in Wrath of the Lich-King.
Eonwe Valar: Do we need to ask this week if anyone's played anything besides WoW and LotRO? :} We know Phar was playing Guild Wars :} Anything else? :}
ArPharazonV: Starcraft: Brood War!
ArPharazonV: just about... 4 levels to go
ArPharazonV: but they're getting really tough now
ArPharazonV: I wonder if I'm good enough to finish it :-)
Eonwe Valar: It's not that bad :}
ArPharazonV: also, Guild Wars also has a july 4th festival, but the festivities are part of the Factions campaign and I only have Prophecies
ArPharazonV: so while this year I missed out on most of it, all I got was a few victory tokens dropped from mobs but I can't spend them.. next year I expect to enjoy it fully!
Eonwe Valar: Good luck :}
ArPharazonV: because I will be buying Factions after I've finished Proph
ArPharazonV: I'm nearly halfway through the Prophecies campaign now, and starting to get the hang of everything, 11 out of 25 missions done and all their bonus objectives
Eonwe Valar: Congrats :}
ArPharazonV: got into a friendly guild, although at this point I ask more help than I give out... but I will repay their hospitality one day :-)
Eonwe Valar: :}
Eonwe Valar: Any other gaming news, or shall we move to Tolkien now :}
ArPharazonV: hmm, nope, that's probably it for me
Eonwe Valar: Arwen? Arien? :}
Eonwe Valar: Ok, onwards then :}

Eonwe Valar: Tolkien:
Eonwe Valar: First off, I finally added a new part to the Rp, so anyone who's in that/still in that and hasn't read it should go peruse it at some time.
ArPharazonV: I read it, and expect to add more in the next week with my increased free time
Eonwe Valar: After reviewing previous posts of Auros, I realized this was his only choice, hehe :}
ArPharazonV: I have a lot to catch up on, revise 1 or 2 posts (which I will explain further in the general commentary thread), and make a new post at least
Eonwe Valar: I look forward to re-reading :}
AriehnV: they all will remain , in my heart and in my soul they re always in my mind. these songs of hobbits dwarves and man. Come on and close your eyes and you can see them too.
ArPharazonV: it's just minor details, I need to add 1 or 2 days to Calaron's journey
Eonwe Valar: Last time Menel and I spoke about the RP, he said if he hadn't posted that week, he's out, so it seems we don't have to factor in Estarion.
ArPharazonV: at least, I believe the plan was to stay one night at the Halls, then to move on, or is that plan no longer viable?
Eonwe Valar: "The Bard's Song- Into the Forest" by Blind Guardian :}
AriehnV: sorry just had to agree with Blind Guardian there :-)
Eonwe Valar: No, it's still one night.
ArPharazonV: good, that gives Calaron a sufficient head-start to set up the ambush
Eonwe Valar: Auros is continuing to Rivendell though, not splitting off to aid in the search for Calaron.
ArPharazonV: I know
ArPharazonV: but he'll meet him anyway :-)
Eonwe Valar: Hehe, ok :}
Eonwe Valar: I already have some good scenes in my mind for my parts in Rivendell.
AriehnV: i wonder whether i should bring in a character that can be more active than a young dwarf warr;ior
Eonwe Valar: There are ways for a young Dwarf to be active.
ArPharazonV: it's fun to have multiple races and ages etc in a party like this :-)
Eonwe Valar: Aye :}
ArPharazonV: too bad we lost Haran and Estarion
ArPharazonV: and I think we had a human and an eagle too at some points?
Eonwe Valar: Elatan had a human at the very beginning, but decided it took him too long to make his posts and bowed out.
Eonwe Valar: Elwing popped in with an eagle-type thing for a few posts.
ArPharazonV: *nod*
AriehnV: what ways, Eonwe? other to stand back blush and bow?
ArPharazonV: anyway, my point is, between a Noldor, 2 Mirkwood elves, one of the Avari, a human, an eagle, and 2 dwarves..
AriehnV: or dangle on a pony
ArPharazonV: it's a lot more fun than just a couple of elves :-)
ArPharazonV: *a Noldo
Eonwe Valar: Well, unique perspective of surroundings and experiences is one way.
Eonwe Valar: A 60-year old Dwarf might see things slightly differently from a 150-year old Dwarf.
Eonwe Valar: I beleive you said in your first post Frali was 60.
Eonwe Valar: Dwarves are a polite people, but they're also a hardy people.
Eonwe Valar: You know what, since we're talking about Dwarves, I'm going to bring up a blog on Dwarves I thought was very good...
Eonwe Valar:
Eonwe Valar: I came across this on one of my rare visits to the LotRO forums, and after reading it I have to say they may a good argument and some good points.
Eonwe Valar: may = make.
Eonwe Valar: But back to the point, Dwarves offer a different view than Elves.
AriehnV: thanks perrusing it
Eonwe Valar: Plus there ought to be room for character development in the Rivendell segment.
Eonwe Valar: The way I'm thinking now, once we arrive at Rivendell, we probably wouldn't be able to do anything until after the Ring has departed, sort of a guarantee nothing inadvertantly gets out before they've already left.
AriehnV: aye but for that we need to get on the road :-)
ArPharazonV: how many days would we be constrained to stay in Rivendell? and when I saw constrained I do not of course mean forcefully hostile, but for the practicality of the situation :-)
ArPharazonV: *when I say
Eonwe Valar: Obviously we don't need a post to account for every day in the time between our arrival and our departure to our next objective, but stories in that time period would give us chances for character interaction and development without
Eonwe Valar: combat.
ArPharazonV: yes, but, of course, Calion will be anxious to move out and track his brother, and spending some weeks in Rivendell would make him quite restless
Eonwe Valar: Auros' reasons for departing aren't firm in my head (I have an idea approximately why) but he probably won't go until a full day at least has passed since the Ring left.
ArPharazonV: and being restless within Rivendell may of course be a good motivation for character development :-)
Eonwe Valar: :}
Eonwe Valar: Checking for dates in RotK.
ArPharazonV: hmm, was an interesting article you gave
Eonwe Valar: Frodo leaves December 25 from Rivendell. I believe there is one week's time between that and the arrival of the last scouts.
ArPharazonV: well, we don't have to assume we'll be the last ones
ArPharazonV: we could give it a week or 2?
ArPharazonV: your journey was relatively short, going directly to the east and back, with only a few days rest in total between stages of the journey
ArPharazonV: I doubt you'd be arriving later than scouts taking paths further to the north or south
Eonwe Valar: Hmm
Eonwe Valar: I'm not sure about a full two week's, but we need not have only 1 week either.
Eonwe Valar: Let's take a quick look at the discussion thread. I'm sure I've done the work for when I left and all that in there already.
Eonwe Valar: Ok, might be easier to just pull out the book and re-figure, hehe.
Eonwe Valar: Ok, the Scouts were sent out within 24 hours of the Council of Elrond.
Eonwe Valar: some on that day, some the next.
Eonwe Valar: Council was November 25th.,
Eonwe Valar: So roughly 30 days between the two.
Eonwe Valar: *The Council and the departure of Frodo and the Ring.
Eonwe Valar: Er, November = october, so two months..
ArPharazonV: 2 months, eh
ArPharazonV: and how long has Auros been on the road now?
Eonwe Valar: The scouts didn't start coming back until December, so we may have as much as two weeks after all.
Eonwe Valar has left the room.
ArPharazonV: eek
AriehnV: bah that was the wrong moment to dc
Eonwe Valar has entered the room.
ArPharazonV: Aiyata
Eonwe Valar: Bah, got Disconnected.
Eonwe Valar: Thanks.
AriehnV: but i dont doubt he will come back :-) and there he is
Eonwe Valar: What was the last thing I said?
ArPharazonV: Eonwe Valar: The scouts didn't start coming back until December, so we may have as much as two weeks after all.
Eonwe Valar: Ok, so that got through. Good.
ArPharazonV: is there any chance that Auros had already been to another destination before the RP started?
ArPharazonV: because if you needed to be gone for at least a month, your journey is rather short
Eonwe Valar: My first post of the Rp has him at the Carrock with the Beornings.
ArPharazonV: you could have come from further west, or further south along the Anduin
ArPharazonV: are you still here? :-)
Eonwe Valar: Aye, just looking through the posts.
Eonwe Valar: Seeing if I left any indication of previous journeies in my first couple of RP posts.
Eonwe Valar: *journies
Eonwe Valar: Hmm "Some days".. suppose I could stretch that...
Eonwe Valar: Making it through the High Pass probably took some time, horse or not.
ArPharazonV: allright
Eonwe Valar has left the room.
Eonwe Valar has entered the room.
Eonwe Valar: OK, this is getting annoying.
ArPharazonV: welcome back again
Eonwe Valar: Thanks.
Eonwe Valar: Could I get the last couple of lines?
ArPharazonV: Eonwe Valar: Hmm "Some days".. suppose I could stretch that...Eonwe Valar: Making it through the High Pass probably took some time, horse or not.
Eonwe Valar: Thanks.
Eonwe Valar: Hopefully our numbers aren't too far off. I don't think I can account for a whole month before Auros' journey through Mirkwood, if his final destination was to be Erebor.
ArPharazonV: :-)
ArPharazonV: well, he could have a dual assignment
ArPharazonV: visit one place first, and then the other
ArPharazonV: but if it says he came straight from Rivendell, that is of course not an option
Eonwe Valar: One sec, I'll just quote myself :}
Eonwe Valar: "It was with these instructions Auros had left Imladris some days ago. Several messengers and scouts were sent by the main roads East, South, and North. He was not one of these.
Eonwe Valar: As soon as he had crossed the Hithaeglir via the High Pass, he was to head North of the Old Forest Road, making with all possible speed to The Forest Gate and so come to Erebor from the West."
Eonwe Valar: Just easier to do that than explain, heh.
ArPharazonV: ah
ArPharazonV: then we might have a problem?
ArPharazonV: well, that's always an issue with making an RP within a fixed timeframe
Eonwe Valar: Aye
ArPharazonV: you may have to play with dates a bit to get it right
ArPharazonV: I remember Tolkien doing the same thing within the parallel storylines, in the history of Middle-earth, within Lotr
Eonwe Valar: Aye, must've been fun for him.
ArPharazonV: full moons, events that have to happen at the same time, and in particular one rainstorm that was present with Sam and Frodo in the East, and later at Helm's Deep
ArPharazonV: he kept adding days here and there to get it right
ArPharazonV: and if we have a shortage of at least 2 weeks, we might have to think about it a little :-)
Eonwe Valar: Aye :}
Eonwe Valar: I'm confident somewhere in here we have a post in which we did the work, if only I can find it, hehe.
Eonwe Valar: The more I skim through our discussion post, the more I fear the only attempt to account for days was after we left Mirkwood.
ArPharazonV: could be
Eonwe Valar: Bah.
Eonwe Valar: Could've sworn we at least once looked at the days. Maybe it was at a meeting.
ArPharazonV: maybe it was to other parts of the journey, and not the days before
ArPharazonV: maybe we only took a handful of days whenever we discussed it, and never the complete picture?
Eonwe Valar: I suppose I should bang the gavel and let those who want to leave do soo, but if anyone is still interested in discussing the RP, I'm willing.
Eonwe Valar: That's possible, Phar.
Eonwe Valar: *bangs gavel*
Eonwe Valar: All who want to are free, those interested in still discussing the Rp can stay :}
Eonwe Valar: Those who are staying, let's take a quick look at the amount of time gone by in the RP.
Eonwe Valar: Day1 is the first meeting: Auros, Fainan, Calion, Haran, Elatan's and Elwing's characters at the Forest Gate.
Eonwe Valar: That night was spent in a flet.
Eonwe Valar: The next day was spent en route to Thranduil's Halls, Estarion met that night.
Eonwe Valar: Day 3 was at Thranduil's Halls.
ArPharazonV: hmhm
Eonwe Valar: Day 4 we left Thranduil's Halls.
Eonwe Valar: So far so good?
ArPharazonV: think so
Eonwe Valar: That takes us through two chapters.
ArPharazonV: 3, I think?
Eonwe Valar: Hmm, looks like 3, aye.
ArPharazonV: For the rest of the day we can follow the River and make camp near it, and in the morning we will make haste directly to Erebor. We will need to fill our water skins before we ride in the morning, but we will make good time.
Eonwe Valar: So Day 4 ended with our camp at the river.
ArPharazonV: so it would seem
ArPharazonV: Auros:The last few days the group rode hard and fast, and finally Erebor, the Lonely Mountain, loomed above them, its shadow just now waxing towards the East as Anar passed her zenith.
ArPharazonV: the last few days... yay, we have room to stretch
ArPharazonV: start of page 3
Eonwe Valar: Here's the catch though.
ArPharazonV: the return journey?
Eonwe Valar: My estimation for our travel time from Erebor to Mirkwood is tied to the journey from Mirkwood to Erebor.
Eonwe Valar: Aye.
Eonwe Valar: We didn't go "as the crow flies" so an extra day or two might be able to be inferred for the M to E journey, but not much more.
ArPharazonV: getting that, I guess... it seems the day we arrived in Dale we stayed there, and the next day we went to Erebor?
ArPharazonV: we'll see how many days return journey took
Eonwe Valar: Aye, we stayed the day at Erebor.
Eonwe Valar: Auros met with other Noldor who would be coming back.
ArPharazonV: and 2 days after we came to Dale, we rode away from Erebor then
Eonwe Valar: Auros must've been the last expected to arrive at Dale, otherwise he probably would've had to wait a day or two to give realistic time for the others to get there.
Eonwe Valar: That could hint at his time West of Mirkwood was expected to take longer than the scouts heading further east.
Eonwe Valar: Pardon, back to the topic at hand.
ArPharazonV: so he *did* spend some more time West of Mirkwood?
Eonwe Valar: That's me theorycrafting.
Eonwe Valar: Trying to use the story to buy us some amount of time, but let's see what our actual time sepent is first.
Eonwe Valar: sepent = spent
Eonwe Valar: So Day 5-8ish were spent from the River to Dale.
ArPharazonV: trying to get a fix on the journey time from Erebor to Mirkwood, but not really seeing anything in writing
Eonwe Valar: My post in the Discussion thread giving the estimations is all we have for that.
ArPharazonV: what does it say?
Eonwe Valar: The journey back was mostly glossed over because no one seems to enjoy campfire scenes, hehe :}
ArPharazonV: so I've noticed :-)
Eonwe Valar: It's a shame though, since a couple every now and then could've given more time for character development, etc, but anyway.
Eonwe Valar: In a nutshell my post says...
Eonwe Valar: Looks like 2 days spent in travel.
ArPharazonV: we rode fast, in a straighter line perhaps
Eonwe Valar: Aye, as the crow flies this time.
ArPharazonV: does that mean we spent 2 nights in the field, or 1?
Eonwe Valar: We cut across the plain.
Eonwe Valar: Looks like just one, the night after we left Erebor.
ArPharazonV: right
ArPharazonV: day 1 we leave from Erebor, day 2 we reach Thranduil
Eonwe Valar: I probably should give more leniency for rest stops in future estimations, but let's just say Auros was eager to keep moving for argument's sake.
Eonwe Valar: Yeah.
Eonwe Valar: I get the feeling I was trying to fit his travel time into a single month.
ArPharazonV: so far you've succeeded ;-)
Eonwe Valar: lol
Eonwe Valar: I had to laugh about that :}
AriehnV: its good to see you laughing @{
AriehnV: :-)
Eonwe Valar: Ok, so we've got approximately two weeks of time in the five chapters we've written so far.
AriehnV: i am fololowing yiour discussion and read through it , but couldnt contribute much since i came in only at Ereb or
AriehnV: but now i bid you a fond goodnight :-)
Eonwe Valar: Sleep well Arien :}
ArPharazonV: Namarie Arien!
AriehnV: Namarie !
AriehnV has left the room.
Eonwe Valar: The post with my estimations also include the Horse/pony speeds and wolf speeds.
ArPharazonV: ah, right
ArPharazonV: well, given an extra day to make things work because we're spending the night at Thranduil's fixes that problem, anyway
Eonwe Valar: OK, back to the subject of arrival time.
Eonwe Valar: At Rivendell.
Eonwe Valar: December 18th was when the decision for the Fellowship to leave a week later was set.
Eonwe Valar: Elladan and Elrohir were the last to arrive.
Eonwe Valar: "December was passing" when the scout began to return.
Eonwe Valar: So let's say approximately the 10th for that.
ArPharazonV: and you left on... 26 oct? 27?
Eonwe Valar: Strictly by the book, I'd say at some point on the 26th.
Eonwe Valar: Puts me in one of the last groups of scouts.
Eonwe Valar: I've been describing days as "autumn" or "late autumn" I believe, so at least that won't need adjusting to "winter."
ArPharazonV: hehe
Eonwe Valar: If we spent approximately 2 weeks from Mirkwood to Erebor and back, we can guess largely due to Auro's pushing (he's a convenient target, so let's blame him for now).
Eonwe Valar: That puts us at meeting about third week of November.
Eonwe Valar: If we arrive around the 10th of December at Rivendell.
Eonwe Valar: Actually..
Eonwe Valar: Depending on what path we take from Mirkwood to Rivendell, that too will buy us some much-needed time.
Eonwe Valar: We can assume slower times going from Mirkwood to Rivendell for the group than Rivendell to Mirkwood for Auros alone, thanks to Frali's pony (proof her character is useful :})
ArPharazonV: well, I assume we have no reason to divert our course from going straight west on the way we came, whatever other route than normal that we can take would not be until we left Mirkwood
ArPharazonV: hehe
ArPharazonV: well, also do consider the days from Rivendell to Mirkwood and back, I think it'd be longer than 2 weeks anyway, maybe 2 and a half?
Eonwe Valar: Aye, Phar, so probably 2 days from the Halls to the Forest Gate unless otherwise sped up or slowed down.
ArPharazonV: you said yourself that the pass would take some time
ArPharazonV: we'll be slowed down, trust me on that.. not sure yet how much though :-)
Eonwe Valar: Auros may take up to travelling longer during the day to make up for lost time, normal hourse if everythign stays on schedule, to account for variations in our numbers :}
Eonwe Valar: hourse = hours.
Eonwe Valar: Ok, quick estimation of time spent from Forest Gate to Erebor and Back: Let's say 16 days.
ArPharazonV: 16? ok
Eonwe Valar: Too much?
ArPharazonV: well, let's see... what was it... when did we get to Dale? 7 or 8?
Eonwe Valar: 5 days from Forest Gate to River camp, 3ish days to Dale.
ArPharazonV: 3 days from camp to Dale? not 2?
Eonwe Valar: Dale was either day 8 or Day 9, whichever is more useful to us :}
Eonwe Valar: hmm
Eonwe Valar: Maybe you're right, two from camp to Dale, with the extra day of difference from the return trip spent along the river.
Eonwe Valar: hmm
Eonwe Valar: that doesn't work.
ArPharazonV: so that would make... the end of day 6
Eonwe Valar: End of Day 5 was at the river.
ArPharazonV: the camp was on the end of day 4, I thought?
Eonwe Valar: You're right, Day 4 was the camp.
Eonwe Valar: Let me get out my Atlas real quick.
ArPharazonV: if we reached Dale at day 6, we came to Erebor on day 7, left Erebor on day 8, reached Thranduil on day 9, left Thranduil on day 10
ArPharazonV: maybe 12, 13 days tops
Eonwe Valar: We may have room for an extra day between the river camp and Dale.
ArPharazonV: in that case, we're at day 10 at the moment and will be leaving Thran on day 11
Eonwe Valar: With the town of Dale in Auros’ sight, the rest of the journey would be taken at a slower pace so they would not be tired when they reached the town.
Eonwe Valar: So he may have camped early enough on the previous day to allow some rest, but close enough to where the slower journey would put them at Dale during daylight.
ArPharazonV: sounds reasonable
Eonwe Valar: He certainly didn't want to ride up to Dale with horses out of breath.
Eonwe Valar: Makes it look urgent, shoot covert out the window.
ArPharazonV: :-)
Eonwe Valar: So 3 days from camp to Dale.
ArPharazonV: right
Eonwe Valar: Day 7 at Dale.
ArPharazonV: then we reach Dale on day 7, go to Erebor on day 8, leave at day 9, reach Thranduil on day 10
Eonwe Valar: Day 8 from Dale to Erebor, stay at Erebor.
Eonwe Valar: Day 11 we reach Thrnaduil./
Eonwe Valar: *Thranduil
ArPharazonV: day 11?
Eonwe Valar: wait, hold on.
Eonwe Valar: You're right.
Eonwe Valar: Day 9 is spent travelling across the plain, we make one camp that night.
ArPharazonV: yep
Eonwe Valar: Day 10 we get up, finish the trip to Mirkwood with at least a bit of daylight to spare.
arwenv1 has left the room.
Eonwe Valar: A few hours of daylight.
ArPharazonV: correct
Eonwe Valar: Either way, that night is spent at Thranduil's halls
Eonwe Valar: So Day 11 we depart.
ArPharazonV: yep
Eonwe Valar: Auros wants to leave at first light, may get delayed leaving for whatever reason.
Eonwe Valar: Or the plan may go ahead as intended, and he leaves at first light.
Eonwe Valar: At some point during day 11 we come to the ambush.
ArPharazonV: day 11 already? not after camping in Mirkwood?
Eonwe Valar: Actually, Day 11 or 12, depending on which day you plan on launching it.
ArPharazonV: probably near the West, that's where most enemy forces are now located
Eonwe Valar: It was 2 and a half days roughly from Forest Gate to Thranduil's halls, at a mostly comfortable pace.
Eonwe Valar: So by Day 13, rough estimate, we should be done with Mirkwood.
Eonwe Valar: The extra two weeks we have left over have to be made up in Auros' travel time to Mirkwood, and in the trip from Mirkwood to Rivendell.
Eonwe Valar: Well, I think about three weeks actually.
ArPharazonV: hmhm
ArPharazonV: well, let's see.. 2 and a half days, right?
ArPharazonV: so we'd be camping twice?
Eonwe Valar: We met and left the gate at night, travelleed a few hours to a flet.
Eonwe Valar: travelled further the next day at a roughly relaxed pace, camped again that night, except then we were pushed on by an attack at some point that night.
ArPharazonV: ah, yes, the spiders
Eonwe Valar: We made a break for it at night, dangerous as that may be for horses, but near enough to first light for light to break not long after we crossed the Enchanted river.
Eonwe Valar: So no sleep got that night, hehe.
ArPharazonV: heh
Eonwe Valar: We travel a chunk of that day away before reaching the Halls, then come all the stuff there.
Eonwe Valar: So had we not been pressed by the spiders, we might've arrived later in that second day.
ArPharazonV: so in all we travelled somewhat less than 2 days, but that includes part of the night?
ArPharazonV: right
ArPharazonV: somewhat less than 2 days then if we met at night
Eonwe Valar: Hmm
Eonwe Valar: Clsoe enough.
Eonwe Valar: *Close
ArPharazonV: so if we ride in the morning from Thranduil's we'll reach the forest gate at the end of the second day, maybe a few hours later?
Eonwe Valar: Depending on how fast we go, probably.
Eonwe Valar: Sounds about right.
Eonwe Valar: Given the previous occurences along the Forest Road, Auros is perhaps more likely to push on longer.
Eonwe Valar: Trying to avoid set traps, hehe.
ArPharazonV: I would expect Calaron to make his move during the dark by preference, and would not chance us getting out before he could....
ArPharazonV: so probably during the first night
ArPharazonV: I expect enemies tracking us somewhere during the evening to determine our location and then an assault at night
Eonwe Valar: hmm
Eonwe Valar: ok
ArPharazonV: maybe later during the day, but that would not be so advantegeous
ArPharazonV: advantageous?
Eonwe Valar: Still leaves us at about 2 weeks exactly for Forest gate to Erebor and back.
ArPharazonV: yep
ArPharazonV: about exactly!
Eonwe Valar: hehe
Eonwe Valar: pick one and delete the other :}
ArPharazonV: well, it's not strictly a contradiction, about exactly does fit :P
Eonwe Valar: :}
Eonwe Valar: Ok, estimation times for trip from Rivendell to Mirkwood.
Eonwe Valar: A day spent from Carrock to Forest Gate.
Eonwe Valar: Not as the crow flies ;}
ArPharazonV: :-)
Eonwe Valar: By my estimations in a post in the discussion thread, Auros should've arrived from Carrock to the gate in about 2.5 hours.
Eonwe Valar: If I went at hard gallop.
Eonwe Valar: Since we've got a pony with us on the return trip, we obviously won't be going 30mph.
ArPharazonV: allright
Eonwe Valar: 4.5 I think is where I put us travelling at for the trip from Erebor, so the pony could keep up.
Eonwe Valar: so about 70 miles between Carrock and Forest Gate as the crow flies for my original estimations.
ArPharazonV: allright
Eonwe Valar: We can get about 2 days of journey out of that.
Eonwe Valar: 70 miles at 4.5 mph give about 15.5 hours
Eonwe Valar: roughly 7 hours of riding a day.
Eonwe Valar: 7.76 more exact.
Eonwe Valar: 7.75 rather.
ArPharazonV: mind if we continue this conversation next week? I should go to bed
Eonwe Valar: Sure, don't mean to keep you up.
ArPharazonV: saved
Eonwe Valar: We can even link the meeting report and continue it in the discussion thread.
ArPharazonV: oh, indeed
ArPharazonV: but this is so much more direct
Eonwe Valar: Aye
Eonwe Valar: Just for ease of reference, do you mind if I continue crunching numbers for the transcript?
ArPharazonV: sure, but send your own then :-)
Eonwe Valar: I will :}
Eonwe Valar: 35 miles from Carrock to the Old Ford.
ArPharazonV: and when I say sure, I mean, "no I won't mind" ;-)
Eonwe Valar: :}
ArPharazonV: do you mind? sure!
Eonwe Valar: Could travel further that day, or camp early to avoid camping near such an important crossroad.
ArPharazonV: and sent
Eonwe Valar: Thanks :}
Eonwe Valar: From the maps, it's hard to tell where the Old Forest Road cuts through the mountains and becomes the great East Road.
Eonwe Valar: I can only guess there is a pass through there somewhere south of the High Pass, which may be somewhat easier to cross for a group than the High Pass.
ArPharazonV: well, I'll see you next week, keep on rambling and saving! ;-)
Eonwe Valar: Or maybe not.
Eonwe Valar: Ok :}
Eonwe Valar: Till next week :}
ArPharazonV: Namarie
Eonwe Valar: Take care :}
ArPharazonV has left the room.
Eonwe Valar: The High Pass seems to be a trade route, so it is probably the best way through the Misty Mountains for a group.
Eonwe Valar: Probably also the safest route, since the Beornings apparently keep it so, but the Atlas of Middle-Earth suggests there may be a path further south, closer to theGreat East Road, that used to be used.
Eonwe Valar: Approximately 60-65 miles from the Old Ford to the foothills near the High Pass, so another two days.
Eonwe Valar: Rough estimate, about a week's worth of travel from The Forest Gate to Rivendell at 4.5mph for the pony.
Eonwe Valar: And I will end my number-crunching there.